Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
